Compare to the Paris Agreement range of 1.5℃ to <2℃ (green horizontal bar). Global warming threshold estimates for climate tipping elements, ranging from the minimum in yellow where tipping is possible, through to maximum in dark red where tipping is very likely, central dotted line is the best estimate. The pivotal paper in Science reviewed more than 220 papers published since 2008 to estimate what level of global temperature rise (relative to pre-industrial levels) would trigger each of the global and regional climate tipping points. Fewer trees ultimately means less rainfall for those that remain, creating a vicious cycle. Global heating and regional reductions in rainfall could cause trees to die, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases. Or when thawing of frozen ground in the Arctic might start producing so much methane and carbon dioxide (CO₂) that it blows the global emissions budget.Īmazonian forest die-back is another major part of the Earth’s climate system. It asks when melting of ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica would become irreversible, ultimately contributing many metres to sea level. The research examines major features of the global climate system, such as ice sheets, glaciers, rainforests and coral reefs. And tipping points once thought to be far off in the distance have come into sharp relief. The question of when global warming might push elements of the climate system past points of no return has come into focus over last the decade or so. Climate Tipping Points: The Point of No Return? A Quick Guide.
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